Fight Predictions: UFC 306/Noche UFC

The UFC is holding another “Noche UFC” event for Mexican Independence Day this year on September 14th, but this time it is a pay-per-view event being held at the immersive new venue The Sphere in Las Vegas.  With two title bouts and an abundance of exciting Mexican fighters on the card, Noche UFC/UFC 306 promises to deliver.

I’ve analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of the fighters in each matchup and have predicted how I see the fights going.  I always try to be unbiased in my predictions and give some factual background for you to make your own predictions as well.  As always in the fight game, you have to expect the unexpected, meaning you can never be totally sure who is going to win and how!  See if you agree with any of my predictions below!

Rosas Jr. vs Aoriqileng (Aoriqileng by decision)

To open the card, Raul Rosas Jr. (9-1) will face Aoriqileng (25-11) in the men’s bantamweight division.  Rosas Jr. is currently the youngest fighter on the roster, and will be just shy of his 20th birthday at the time of this fight.  The Mexican fighter was initially signed in 2022 after a decision win over Mando Gutierrez on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS).  He is announced as a freestyle fighter, but he largely presents a submission threat, as he has won 6 of his 9 wins by submission.  Aoriquileng has a wealth of experience both inside the UFC and other promotions in his home country of China.  His last fight against Daniel Marcos unfortunately ended in a no contest due to an unintentional groin strike which he was unable to recover from.  Prior to this, he was 3-3 in the UFC. 

Of note, despite Rosas Jr.’s wins by submission, his takedown accuracy within the UFC is only 39%, and Aoriqileng has a 59% takedown defense; however, Aoriquileng has had 3 submission losses early in his career.  While he has won the majority of his fights via decision, he has had 8 KO/TKO wins on his record.  Rosas Jr. is a surging prospect with a lot of potential, but proved that he still has room for improvement in his fight against Christian Rodriguez, where he struggled with his cardio and was picked apart in the second and third rounds.  But despite the low takedown accuracy, if he gets his opponent down or is able to control the clinch, he is proven hard to shake.  Aoriqileng is battle tested, and I believe his experience will play a role in this fight.  Although Rosas Jr. has hype and age on his side, I am picking the underdog Aoriqileng by decision based on his veteran status and if he can execute a game plan that keeps Rosas Jr. at distance.

Torres vs Bahamondes (Torres by KO/TKO, R3)

The next fight will feature two strong prospects in the lightweight division, Manuel Torres (15-2) and Ignacio Bahamondes (15-5).  The Mexican-born fighter Torres boasts an impressive 6 fight win streak, with his last win coming by way of a rear naked choke over Chris Duncan.  He also proves to be a threat on both the ground and on the feet.  14 of his 15 wins have come by finish (split evenly between KO/TKO and submissions).  Bahamondes also has an impressive professional record which includes 10 wins by KO/TKO.  His last fight added to this statistic with a win over Christos Giagos by head kick TKO.  The Chilean fighter has won two performance of the night bonuses for his striking finishes.

Both fighters are more evenly matched in terms of striking, with Torres having a 12% higher significant strike accuracy than Bahamondes at 59% within the UFC, and a 57% significant strike defense; Bahamondes has a 47% significant strike accuracy within the UFC, and a 58% significant strike defense.  Torres presents more of a threat on the ground than Bahamondes and has a 67% takedown accuracy, but Bahamondes has a high takedown defense at 86%.  Bahamondes has also suffered 2 losses by submission early in his career.  Based on Torres’ momentum and slight edge in striking, and Bahamondes’ superior takedown defense, I believe this fight will end in a KO/TKO victory for Torres in round 3.

Chairez vs Borjas (Chairez by submission, R1)

Next up is a matchup between Edgar Chairez (11-5, 1 NC) and Kevin Borjas (9-3) in the men’s flyweight division.  Both men have had a rocky start to their UFC careers.  Chairez started with a loss to Tatsuro Taira, then a no contest after his submission win over Daniel Lacerda was overturned after it was deemed the referee stopped the fight too quickly.  He was able to find redemption by finishing with a triangle choke over Lacerda in the rematch (there was, however, some drama prior to the fight with both fighters missing weight).  Borjas was signed from DWCS after a win over Victor Dias, but has gone 0-2 in the UFC losing by decision and by TKO in his most recent fight against Alessandro Costa.

The Mexican fighter Chairez has proved to be a finisher, with all 11 of his wins coming by submission and TKO/KO (7 and 4, respectively).  He is an aggressive fighter and is not afraid to make things ugly.  Despite this, he has never lost by TKO/KO.  Borjas has an impressive number of finishes in his own right, scoring 8 KO/TKO wins in his career.  The Peruvian’s level of competition has been notably lower than Chairez’s, with many of Borjas’ opponents having a losing record.  Considering Chairez’s more impressive resume and more well-rounded style, I believe he will win via submission in round 1.

Jauregui vs Souza (Jauregui by decision)

Next on the prelims is a strawweight bout between Yazmin Jauregui (11-1) and Ketlen Souza (14-4).  Jauregui won her last fight with a strong unanimous decision over Sam Hughes.  The Mexican is a powerful and aggressive striker, winning 7 of her 11 wins by KO/TKO.  She has a high output of strikes, with 647 significant strikes attempted in her 4 UFC fights.  The Brazilian Souza is also primarily a striker who has 8 wins by TKO/KO.  She was the Invicta flyweight champion before being signed to the UFC.  Her last fight was a unanimous decision win over Marnic Mann.

Both fighters have also had TKO losses.  Souza typically has a lower guard, and Yazmin keeps hers high as is typical for many Mexican boxers/strikers.  Given the aggressiveness and volume that Yazmin puts out, I believe she will have more success on the feet and take a unanimous decision.

Aldana vs Dumont (Aldana by KO/TKO, R2)

The featured prelim for Noche UFC is a women’s bantamweight fight between Irene Aldana (15-7) and Norma Dumont (11-2).  Aldana has become a UFC veteran, recently getting a shot at the title against Amanda Nunes last year which she lost by unanimous decision.  She made an impressive comeback with a fight of the night decision win over Karol Rosa.  She is a classic Mexican striker and has won 8 fights by KO/TKO but also has 3 submission wins in her MMA career and has competed in national jiu jitsu tournaments early in her career.  Impressively, she started training at 23 years old which is much later than most fighters.  Dumont comes from a sanda base, which is a Chinese full-contact martial art.  She has several accolades nationally in sanda.  She has spent time at both 135 and 145, but as the women’s featherweight division has largely fizzled since Amanda Nunes’ retirement, the Brazilian’s last few fights have been at bantamweight.  Her last fight was a decision win over Germaine de Randamie.

Dumont has had two victories by submission prior to her entrance in the UFC.  She also has a relatively high takedown accuracy within the UFC at 68%.  Her only KO loss was to Megan Anderson in her UFC debut.  Her other loss was by decision, and this is how she has won most of her fights.  Aldana does not often find herself in a bad position on the ground as she holds a 76% takedown defense in the UFC.  She does have two TKO losses when she fought in Invicta but has only had decision losses while in the UFC.  Dumont can make a fight ugly and be aggressive, but Aldana utilizes her crisp striking to often stay out of the way of dangerous exchanges and land more effective shots.  Even though Dumont is considered a stronger fighter physically, I believe she will have a hard time taking Aldana down.  I anticipate a TKO by Aldana in the second round if she can use her cardio and striking to her advantage and stay on her feet.

Zellhuber vs Ribovics (Ribovics by decision)

The first fight to start off the main card between lightweights Daniel Zellhuber (15-1) and Esteban Ribovics (13-1) has all the makings to be a barn burner on paper.  The Mexican Zellhuber was signed to the UFC after a decision win over Lucas Almeida on DWCS.  He is on a 3 fight win streak with his last fight coming by way of unanimous decision in an entertaining bout against Francisco Prado.  He is a well rounded fighter and can finish fights both on the feet and on the ground, having 7 KO/TKO victories and 3 submission victories.  The Argentinian Ribovics also has impressive accolades, boasting finishes in 12 of his 13 victories, 7 by KO/TKO and 5 by submission.  He was signed after a TKO win over Thomas Paull on DWCS.  His most recent fight with Terrance McKinney created a memorable highlight reel with a head kick KO.  He is primarily a striker but also isn’t afraid of engaging in grappling exchanges.

This is an incredible matchup, and should prove to be a very evenly matched and entertaining fight.  Zellhuber has an astonishing 8 inch reach advantage over Ribovics and has a 41% striking accuracy.  Ribovics has a 52% striking accuracy and a 67% takedown accuracy, while Zellhuber has a near-perfect takedown defense of 94%.  Both fighters have paths to victory, and I think it will be difficult for either of them to finish the other.  That said, I believe that Ribovics can edge out Zellhuber for a close decision victory if he is mindful of his range.

Ortega vs Lopes (Lopes by decision)

Next is the much-anticipated rescheduled bout between featherweights Brian Ortega (16-3) and Diego Lopes (25-6).  Ortega has been a much beloved staple in the UFC since 2014.  Following a no contest in his UFC debut, he went on to amass 6 wins in a row by stoppage.  He managed to best many of the division’s veterans, including Cub Swanson and Frankie Edgar.  The California native began training in BJJ with Rener Gracie starting at age 13.  He has been seen particularly as a submission specialist, but also has 3 TKO victories inside the UFC.  His most recent fight added to his submission win resume with a triangle choke over former title challenger Yair Rodriguez.  The Brazilian-born Lopes is riding a 4 fight win streak, 3 of which were electrifying finishes.  His most recent fight against Dan Ige was a unanimous decision in his favor that was also an entertaining battle.  Like Ortega, Lopes also has a BJJ background, and he moved to Mexico as a young adult to start coaching and to continue training.  22 of his 25 wins have come by way of stoppage, with 12 by submission and 10 by KO/TKO.  He has gone 4-1 in the UFC, and has already earned two performance bonuses.

Many fans and analysts are anticipating a TKO or KO by Lopes; however, Ortega is notoriously hard to put away, never having officially been knocked out, with the closest being a doctor’s stoppage between rounds of his fight with Max Holloway.  His durability in his fight against Volkanovski after absorbing a large amount of damage is also memorable.  He did however have difficulty with his weight cut when he was first scheduled to fight Lopes, and has been the less active fighter, only fighting once in the last 2 years.  This fight has the makings to be a grappler’s delight or a stand and bang match between two very game fighters with a high level of skill and experience.  I anticipate a 3 round war that will end in favor of Lopes.

Rodriguez vs Osbourne (Rodriguez by submission, R1)

The third fight on the main card features men’s flyweights Ronaldo Rodriguez (16-2) and Ode Osbourne (12-7).  The Mexican striker Rodriguez is new to the UFC, having had only one fight in the promotion, but he finished it with a bang, submitting Denys Bondar by rear naked choke.  He fought on DWCS in 2020 and lost, but went on to go on a 6 fight win streak outside of the UFC which earned him a spot back in the promotion.  12 of his 16 wins have come by way of stoppage, 7 by KO/TKO and 5 by submission.  Osbourne has had some difficulty in his career in the UFC so far.  He was signed to the UFC after his appearance on DWCS with an armbar win over Armando Villarreal.  But in the 9 fights he has had since, he has gone 4-5, and all 5 losses have come by way of a finish.  The Jamaican-born fighter is classified by the UFC as a striker, but he does have 5 submission wins on his resume.

Both men are high volume strikers, but don’t land at a very high clip.  Rodriguez landed 42% of his significant strikes in his fight against Denys Bondar, and Osbourne has a 39% significant strike accuracy in the UFC.  Rodriguez landed 2 of his 4 takedown attempts in his first fight, and Osbourne has a 28% takedown accuracy.  Both men have near equivalent takedown defense at roughly 64%.  As 3 out of 5 of Osbourne’s losses have come by way of submission, and Rodriguez has success with grappling and is back in the UFC in a big way, I predict he will secure a submission over Osbourne in the first round.

Grasso vs Shevchenko (Grasso by decision)

The co-main event features women’s flyweights Alexa Grasso (16-3-1) and Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-1) in their third meeting for the title.  Grasso originally won the title in early 2023 with a shocking upset over the reigning champ Shevchenko by rear choke.  Their second fight ended in a contested split draw, which meant Grasso kept the title.  The Mexican fighter began training in boxing and muay thai at age 14, and after some regional MMA bouts, she was signed to Invicta, where she spent her time at strawweight.  She entered the UFC as a strawweight as well, but went 2-3 and had difficulty making weight, missing twice and causing the cancellation of her fight scheduled against Claudia Gadelha.  After her move to flyweight, she began to excel, going on a 4 fight win streak with impressive performances over contenders like Maycee Barber and Joanne Wood, which earned her the title shot.  Shevchenko has a lengthy MMA background and grew up fighting, starting at age 5 with taekwondo.  She has had an illustrious career and competed professionally in many disciplines.  Some of her accolades include 17-time world muay thai and K1 champion, and master of sport in boxing, kickboxing, taekwondo, and judo.  Like Grasso, she also spent time outside of the flyweight division prior to its inception and fought at 135, challenging the likes of Holly Holm and Amanda Nunes.  She has excelled in her natural weight class at 125, and had a dominant 9 fight win streak at flyweight with 7 title defenses that included some impressive stoppage victories.

Both women are high-level athletes at the top of their division and have proved that they can finish a fight anywhere.  Grasso has 4 wins by KO/TKO and 2 by submission, and Shevchenko has 8 KO/TKO victories and 7 submission victories.  Both fighters have also rarely lost by finish; Grasso has one submission loss and no KO/TKO losses, and Shevchenko has only lost by submission to Grasso and has a remote TKO loss to Liz Carmouche due to a doctor’s stoppage from a cut.  Shevchenko holds higher takedown and significant strike percentages as well as takedown defense and striking defense than Grasso; however, Grasso is the only fighter to ever submit her, and was able to knock her down with a flush right hand in their second meeting which is something that is not often seen.  Due to the closeness of their last fight, it is likely that Shevchenko will be extra motivated to reclaim her title; however, she is now 36 years old, and Grasso is 31, and a younger age tends to lend itself to more endurance and durability.  I believe this fight will be another back and forth war. You can never count Shevchenko out, and I believe it is possible she could end up getting a finish. I do find it most likely that the bout will ultimately end in another close decision in favor of Grasso.

O’Malley vs Dvalishvili (O’Malley by decision)

In the highly anticipated main event for The Sphere card, current men’s bantamweight champ Sean O’Malley (18-1) will face the surging Merab Dvalishvili (17-4).  O’Malley captured the title from Aljamain Sterling and then made a statement and gained redemption in a decisive victory over Chito Vera who gave O’Malley his only loss.  Although O’Malley is largely seen as a striker with memorable walk-off KO victories over Eddie Wineland and in his victory on DWCS over Alfred Khashakyan, he holds a BJJ brown belt and has competed in professional grappling tournaments and won 2 professional MMA fights by submission.  He also has a solid amateur career, going 12-2 in MMA, 4-0 in kickboxing, and 2-0 in boxing.  The Georgian Dvalishvili presents a stark contrast to O’Malley in that his primary style is grappling.  He earned his title shot in his last fight with an impressive victory over Henry Cejudo.  He was able to take the Olympic wrestler down 5 times and vastly outstruck him.  He is well versed in a variety of grappling styles including sambo and wrestling, and holds a black belt in judo.  Dvalishvili holds the record for 3rd most takedowns in UFC history at 79.  He has steadily risen through the ranks and currently has a 10 fight win streak.  Dvalishvili could have been eligible for a title shot several fights back, but did not want to fight Sterling when he was the champ as they are friends.

Many of the major differences in this matchup are obvious, including height and reach.  O’Malley is extremely tall for the weight class at 5’11 and has a reach of 72” and a leg reach of 40”.  Dvalishvili has a 4 inch disadvantage in reach, but only a 2 inch disadvantage in leg reach.  O’Malley has a higher striking accuracy at 63%, and lands 7.63 significant strikes per minute.  Dvalisvhili’s striking accuracy is only 42%, but he has a decent defense of 57%.  Dvalishvili has also frequently faced opponents who are of his same height and reach, so this will be the first time he is disadvantaged in that department in some time.  Many see this fight playing out with relentless takedowns/takedown attempts for Dvalishvili and O’Malley choosing precise strikes at distance and searching for a knockout.  Although Dvalisvhili has faced many strikers, he has never been knocked out.  O’Malley has also faced many grapplers, and holds a 63% takedown defense.  With all of this in mind, I see this fight playing out with O’Malley utilizing his reach effectively, stuffing takedowns, and getting a decision win.

Please note, all predictions are made from the perspective of a fan and avid watcher of the sport and not as a professional sports analyst or commentator.

All UFC fighter backgrounds and statistics were pulled from the UFC website under fighter profiles/statistics pages and tapology.com